Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2322 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 2322 · SFO → MFR

departs 10:37 AM PT · arrives 12:04 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MFR?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at MFR that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MFR (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2322 · SFO → MFR

Odds over time

How late will it get to MFR?