Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2359 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Today

UA 2359 · EWR → RDU

departs 7:15 PM ET · arrives 9:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at RDU that day

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2359 · EWR → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?