Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2401 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 2401 · ORD → BOS

departs 12:41 PM CT · arrives 4:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ BOS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2401 · ORD → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?