UA 2417 · IAH → ORD

departs 11:56 AM CT · arrives 2:37 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2417 · IAH → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?