Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2435 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 2435 · IAD → SMF

departs 5:55 PM ET · arrives 8:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2435 · IAD → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?