UA 245 · IAD → BNA

departs 5:56 PM ET · arrives 6:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 245 · IAD → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?