Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2497 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 2497 · IAD → ORD

departs 5:09 PM ET · arrives 6:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2497 · IAD → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?