Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 254 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 254 · EWR → ORD

departs 6:40 PM ET · arrives 8:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±12 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 254 · EWR → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?