Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2643 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 2643 · DEN → BDL

departs 10:13 AM MT · arrives 4:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BDL?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ 10am departures from DEN are often late

↑ Arrivals into BDL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BDL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2643 · DEN → BDL

Odds over time

How late will it get to BDL?