Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2649 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 2649 · SFO → SBP

departs 10:58 AM PT · arrives 12:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBP?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBP (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2649 · SFO → SBP

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBP?