Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 265 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 265 · ORD → BUF

departs 6:43 AM CT · arrives 9:24 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 265 · ORD → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?