UA 274 · EWR → TPA

took off 8:33 PM ET · expected to land 10:52 PM ET (scheduled 8:26 PM ET → 11:28 PM ET)

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TPA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 274 · EWR → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?