Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2843 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 2843 · DEN → BWI

departs 6:05 PM MT · arrives 11:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2843 · DEN → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?