UA 2851 · LAX → CLE

departs 9:33 AM PT · arrives 5:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into CLE at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ This flight has been late 8% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLE (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2851 · LAX → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?