UA 3784 · TPA → MKE

departs 1:16 PM ET · arrives 3:28 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MKE?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Arrivals into MKE at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MKE (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3784 · TPA → MKE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKE?