UA 378 · ORD → EWR

departs 5:48 PM CT · arrives 8:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at EWR that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 378 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?