Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 407 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 407 · EWR → DEN

departs 6:49 PM ET · arrives 9:18 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 407 · EWR → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?