UA 413 · MCO → IAD

departs 4:45 PM ET · arrives 7:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 413 · MCO → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?