UA 454 · MCO → ORD

departs 6:58 AM ET · arrives 9:03 AM CT

Your aircraft is N27586 (B39M), coming in as UA 2834 from ORD: landed 11:39 PM ET.

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 454 · MCO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?