Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 486 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 486 · MCO → CLE

departs 12:34 PM ET · arrives 3:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLE at that hour are often late

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ CLE usually runs smoothly

↓ This flight has been late 9% of the time recently

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

CLE (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 486 · MCO → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?