Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 499 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 499 · SEA → SFO

departs 7:06 AM PT · arrives 9:18 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 499 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?