UA 519 · SAN → DEN

took off 7:23 PM PT · expected to land 10:15 PM MT (scheduled 6:55 PM PT → 10:27 PM MT)

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

3% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
97%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 519 · SAN → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?