UA 528 · SFO → CLE

departs 11:16 PM PT · arrives 6:59 AM ET

Your aircraft is N27511 (B39M), coming in as UA 504 from BWI: landed 9:37 PM PT.

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ CLE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLE (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 528 · SFO → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?