UA 747 · ORD → BWI

departs 6:29 PM CT · arrives 9:35 PM ET

Your aircraft is N17487 (B39M), coming in as UA 1851 from FLL: landed 4:31 PM CT.

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts −20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 747 · ORD → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?