UA 8111 · SNA → ORD

departs 2:18 PM PT · arrives 8:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from SNA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8111 · SNA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?