Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8122 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Today

UA 8122 · DEN → SAN

departs 9:06 PM MT · arrives 10:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8122 · DEN → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?