Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8124 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Today

UA 8124 · BUR → SFO

departs 3:09 PM PT · arrives 4:43 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8124 · BUR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?