Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8227 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Today

UA 8227 · IAH → TUL

departs 8:07 PM CT · arrives 9:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TUL?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8227 · IAH → TUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUL?