Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 825 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

UA 825 · NRT → SPN

departs 4:52 PM JST · arrives 9:25 PM ChST

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at SPN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SPN?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at SPN that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at NRT

↓ Arrivals into SPN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

NRT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SPN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 825 · NRT → SPN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SPN?