Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 868 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

UA 868 · NRT → ORD

departs 1:27 AM JST · arrives 10:46 PM CT

Your aircraft is N20904 (B788), coming in as UA 867 from ORD: landed 2:40 PM JST.

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at NRT

Weather at each end

NRT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 868 · NRT → ORD

Odds over time