UA 956 · EWR → GVA

departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 6:23 AM CET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at GVA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GVA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Arrivals into GVA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GVA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 956 · EWR → GVA

Odds over time

How late will it get to GVA?