Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VIVA AEROBUS · FLIGHT VB 518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
VB 518 · GDL → LAX
departs 8:42 PM CST · arrives 11:01 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
GDL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.