Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VIVA AEROBUS · FLIGHT VB 547
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
VB 547 · ORD → GDL
departs 12:39 PM CT · arrives 3:45 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 36%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
↓
Arrivals into GDL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.