Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1005
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 1005 · BWI → GRR
departs 10:55 AM ET · arrives 12:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 14%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Arrivals into GRR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
GRR (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.