Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1011
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 1011 · BWI → HOU
departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28 28%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 43%
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.