Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1093
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 1093 · BWI → MSY
departs 9:44 PM ET · arrives 11:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/28 21%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 35%
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.