Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1109
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 1109 · PHL → MCO
departs 2:30 PM ET · arrives 4:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 41%
Mon 11/2 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from PHL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.