Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1188
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 1188 · SAT → MCO
departs 1:06 PM CT · arrives 4:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.12 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.