Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1230
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 1230 · DAL → SAT
departs 12:44 PM CT · arrives 1:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 12%
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at SAT that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.