Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 1406 · BWI → DEN
departs 4:48 PM ET · arrives 6:38 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 38%
Sun 11/1 40%
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.