Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 1431 · PHX → MCO
departs 8:01 AM MT · arrives 3:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28 23%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 18%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.