Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
WN 1491 · CMH → TPA
departs 2:50 PM ET · arrives 5:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 8%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
CMH usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.