Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1582
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 1582 · DTW → MCO
departs 4:21 PM ET · arrives 6:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28 22%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 37%
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.