Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1721
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 1721 · SXM → MCO
departs 3:05 PM AST · arrives 6:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
43%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
43%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Leave SXM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at MCO that day
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
3pm departures from SXM are usually not late
Weather at each end
SXM (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.