WN 1761 · DEN → RDU

departs 10:43 AM MT · arrives 4:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1761 · DEN → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?