Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 185
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 185 · LAS → HNL
departs 10:05 AM PT · arrives 1:22 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 27%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at HNL that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into HNL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.