WN 1957 · HNL → ITO

departs 8:49 AM HT · arrives 10:00 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at ITO more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ITO?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.4 in of rain forecast at ITO that day

↑ ITO is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at HNL that day

↓ Arrivals into ITO at that hour are usually not late

↓ 8am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

ITO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1957 · HNL → ITO

Odds over time

How late will it get to ITO?