WN 2109 · PHX → SAT

departs 3:18 PM MT · arrives 7:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.0 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.96 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2109 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?