WN 2115 · SAN → OAK

departs 10:06 AM PT · arrives 11:45 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SAN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Arrivals into OAK at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

OAK (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2115 · SAN → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?