Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2380
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
WN 2380 · SAN → SMF
departs 7:07 PM PT · arrives 8:49 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 42%
Mon 11/2 37%
Tue 11/3 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.